Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon EisertPitching2.2 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Orioles- Ryan MountcastleBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Guerrero Jr. singled to center, Horwitz scored.5–11
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–11
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 25–11
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 15–11
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–11
- 8Mountcastle homered to right (367 feet).4–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–11
- 7Guerrero Jr. homered to right (385 feet).4–10
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–10
- 5Santander homered to right center (374 feet), McCann scored.3–10
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–10
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 33–10
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–10
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 23–10
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–10
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–10
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–10
- 5Cowser hit sacrifice fly to left, Mullins scored.3–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–8
- 5Barger homered to right center (426 feet), Horwitz scored and Guerrero Jr. scored.3–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–7
- 4Westburg doubled to left, Henderson scored, Mountcastle thrown out at home.0–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 4O'Hearn hit sacrifice fly to center, Cowser scored.0–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 3Urías grounded out to shortstop, Westburg scored.0–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 60%
- ML TOR +140 / BAL -165
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- BAL: Elo 57.0%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- BAL -149
- TOR +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.8 – 4.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −4 | TOR: Yariel Rodriguez: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BAL: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +49 Elo | BAL 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 60.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 20th of 3024–28 | Road vs home | 31–2411th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–54 | 54–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–34 | 36–44 |
| Underdog | 29–20 | 18–6 |
| Overs–unders | 58–46–1 | 59–43–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 6–13 BAL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 19.