Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Addison BargerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Paolo EspinoPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Orioles- Jackson HollidayBatting1-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Henderson singled to left, Cowser scored.4–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–10
- 6Varsho scored on error, Serven safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Henderson, Barger safe at third on error.4–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–9
- 5Santander singled to center, McCann scored.3–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–9
- 5Holliday homered to right (439 feet), Mountcastle scored, Mullins scored and Westburg scored.3–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–8
- 5Guerrero Jr. grounded out to third, Springer scored.3–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 4Barger hit a ground rule double, Clement scored, Schneider to third.2–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 3O'Hearn hit sacrifice fly to center, Henderson scored.1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 3Barger homered to right (371 feet).1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Cowser homered to right center (425 feet).0–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Mountcastle tripled to right, Santander scored and Henderson scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 69%
- ML TOR +205 / BAL -250
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.7 pts
- BAL: Elo 58.8%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- BAL -218
- TOR +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.9 – 5.6 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −1 | TOR: Paolo Espino (no track record yet) · BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +62 Elo | BAL 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 61.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 26th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 20th of 3025–30 | Road vs home | 33–2510th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–56 | 56–51 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–34 | 38–45 |
| Underdog | 30–22 | 18–6 |
| Overs–unders | 60–47–1 | 61–44–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 7–15 BAL in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 22.