Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bowden FrancisPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Orioles- Colton CowserBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cade PovichPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Guerrero Jr. doubled to center, Springer scored.8–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–4
- 8Guerrero Jr. homered to center (416 feet).7–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 27–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 17–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 7Cowser singled to right, Westburg scored, Urías to second.6–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 26–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 5Springer singled to center, Jimenez scored, Berroa to second, Kiermaier to third.6–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 4Schneider hit sacrifice fly to center, Springer scored.5–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 4Guerrero Jr. doubled to left, Berroa scored, Springer to third.4–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 14–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 2Westburg homered to left center (409 feet), O'Hearn scored.3–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 2Horwitz grounded out to second, Berroa scored, Springer to second.3–1
- 2Pitch 9 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball 33–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 23–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 2Berroa singled to left, Kiermaier scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 1Cowser homered to right center (430 feet).1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 57%
- ML TOR +125 / BAL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- BAL: Elo 58.3%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- BAL -135
- TOR +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.4 – 5.1 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −25 | TOR: Bowden Francis: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 1.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +58 Elo | BAL 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.02nd of 30 |
| 26th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 20th of 3024–29 | Road vs home | 32–2411th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–55 | 55–50 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–34 | 37–44 |
| Underdog | 29–21 | 18–6 |
| Overs–unders | 59–46–1 | 60–43–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 6–14 BAL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 20.