Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Ramon UriasBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Varsho doubled to right, Berroa scored, Springer to third.2–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 5Santander homered to right center (355 feet).1–6
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 31–6
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 4Urías singled to center, Mullins scored.1–5
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 31–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 4Kirk hit sacrifice fly to center, Guerrero Jr. scored.1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3O'Hearn singled to left, Rutschman scored and Henderson scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 3Urías homered to right center (381 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Santander doubled to left, Henderson scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 66%
- ML TOR +180 / BAL -215
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- BAL: Elo 61.6%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- BAL -191
- TOR +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.5 – 5.0 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +11 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +82 Elo | BAL 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 62.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.02nd of 30 |
| 26th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 18th of 3025–29 | Road vs home | 32–2511th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–55 | 55–51 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–34 | 37–45 |
| Underdog | 30–21 | 18–6 |
| Overs–unders | 60–46–1 | 61–43–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 7–14 BAL in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 21.