Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Zach NetoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Carson FulmerPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Yankees- DJ LeMahieuBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching4.1 IP, 8 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 4Torres hit sacrifice fly to center, LeMahieu scored.8–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–2
- 4Neto doubled to right, Leblanc scored and Stefanic scored.8–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging8–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 2LeMahieu singled to right, Chisholm Jr. scored on error, LeMahieu safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Adell.6–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 26–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 2Neto homered to left center (412 feet), Moniak scored, Adell scored and Schanuel scored.6–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 36–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 26–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 2Schanuel walked, Thaiss scored, Adell to second, Moniak to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 42–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 32–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Moniak singled to right, Pillar scored, Thaiss to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 69%
- ML LAA +205 / NYY -250
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 63.6%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- NYY -218
- LAA +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.4 – 5.1 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −5 | LAA: Carson Fulmer: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +97 Elo | NYY 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 67.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 66.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 26th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +1.11st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 21st of 3023–29 | Road vs home | 30–2411th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–52 | 61–52 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–20 | 36–47 |
| Underdog | 55–32 | 25–5 |
| Overs–unders | 55–58 | 64–48–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 5–5 NYY in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.