Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Ernie ClementBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Yariel RodriguezPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Juan SotoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10LeMahieu singled to center, Volpe scored.3–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 8Kirk hit sacrifice fly to left, Loperfido scored.3–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Soto homered to left center (396 feet).2–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 6LeMahieu hit sacrifice fly to center, Volpe scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Grisham grounded out to first, Chisholm Jr. scored, Volpe to third.2–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Clement singled to center, Barger scored, De Los Santos to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Barger doubled to center, Kirk scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 71%
- ML TOR +235 / NYY -290
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.2 pts
- NYY: Elo 60.1%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- NYY -249
- TOR +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.7 – 5.8 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +5 | TOR: Yariel Rodriguez: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +71 Elo | NYY 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 66.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 65.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 26th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.11st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3026–32 | Road vs home | 28–2414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–58 | 60–51 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 22–34 | 35–46 |
| Underdog | 31–24 | 25–5 |
| Overs–unders | 63–47–1 | 64–46–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 12–13 NYY in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 25.