Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wells singled to right, Verdugo scored, Judge to second.3–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 7Volpe singled to left, Judge scored, Torres to second.3–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 6Kirk singled to right, Springer scored and Guerrero Jr. scored.3–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–6
- 5Volpe homered to left center (376 feet), Torres scored.1–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 2Grisham homered to right center (399 feet), Rice scored.1–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 1Judge homered to center (426 feet), Soto scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 1Guerrero Jr. homered to center (417 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 67%
- ML TOR +195 / NYY -235
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- NYY: Elo 58.8%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- NYY -207
- TOR +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.0 – 5.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +3 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +62 Elo | NYY 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 62.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 26th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.01st of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 20th of 3026–31 | Road vs home | 27–2415th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–57 | 59–51 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 22–34 | 34–46 |
| Underdog | 31–23 | 25–5 |
| Overs–unders | 62–47–1 | 63–46–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 12–12 NYY in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 24.