Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Zach NetoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Davis DanielPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Oswaldo CabreraBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis GilPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Neto homered to left (396 feet), Schanuel scored.2–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 12–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 4Judge singled to left, Verdugo scored.0–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 4Verdugo doubled to center, Rice scored.0–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 2Cabrera homered to right (360 feet).0–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 30–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Volpe doubled to left, Judge scored, Wells to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Wells singled to left, Verdugo scored, Judge to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 73%
- ML LAA +250 / NYY -315
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 64.7%, market 72.7%
- Fair odds
- NYY -266
- LAA +266 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.2 – 5.3 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +2 | LAA: Davis Daniel: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +105 Elo | NYY 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 68.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 68.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 72.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 27th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +1.11st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 21st of 3023–28 | Road vs home | 29–2413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–51 | 60–52 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–20 | 35–47 |
| Underdog | 55–31 | 25–5 |
| Overs–unders | 55–57 | 64–47–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 5–4 NYY in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.