Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Jo AdellBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Nationals- Alex CallBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Call reached on infield single to second, Young scored.2–3
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball 32–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 8Yepez hit sacrifice fly to center, Call scored.2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 2Adell homered to left center (431 feet), Pillar scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Ruiz grounded into fielder's choice to second, L. García Jr. scored, Yepez safe at second on error by shortstop Neto.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 52%
- ML LAA -120 / WSH +100
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- LAA: Elo 47.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- LAA -109
- WSH +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.3 – 4.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −4 | LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +16 Elo | WSH 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 20th of 3025–29 | Road vs home | 26–3126th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–52 | 64–52 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–20 | 9–13 |
| Underdog | 57–32 | 55–39 |
| Overs–unders | 57–58 | 59–56–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 2–1 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.