Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Zach NetoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 0 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Tena singled to center, Abrams scored.4–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 7Tena singled to left, Wood scored, Tena thrown out at second.4–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 14–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 7Wood doubled to right, Yepez scored.4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pillar doubled to center, O'Hoppe scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Neto homered to center (405 feet).3–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 4Drury singled to left, Ward scored, Rendon to second.2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Call singled to center, Young scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 2Wood homered to left center (381 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Drury hit sacrifice fly to center, Ward scored, Adell to second, Rendon to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 50%
- ML LAA -110 / WSH -110
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- WSH: Elo 52.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- WSH -100
- LAA -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.8 – 4.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −16 | LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +16 Elo | WSH 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 27th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 21st of 3025–30 | Road vs home | 27–3124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–53 | 65–52 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–21 | 9–13 |
| Underdog | 57–32 | 56–39 |
| Overs–unders | 57–59 | 59–57–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 2–2 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.