Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Angels- Matt ThaissBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching5.2 IP, 7 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ward hit sacrifice fly to left, Rendon scored.9–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking9–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 29–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–2
- 9Guerrero Jr. homered to left center (401 feet), Varsho scored.9–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–1
- 6Jimenez hit sacrifice fly to second, Clement scored.7–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–1
- 5Thaiss homered to center (407 feet).6–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Varsho homered to right center (396 feet), Jimenez scored and Springer scored.6–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 3Guerrero Jr. singled to right, Varsho scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Clement homered to left (387 feet), Horwitz scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 51%
- ML TOR -105 / LAA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- LAA: Elo 47.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAA -104
- TOR +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.2 – 4.3 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +9 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +15 Elo | TOR 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.827th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.827th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 20th of 3028–33 | Road vs home | 26–3728th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–62 | 65–55 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–37 | 6–23 |
| Underdog | 35–25 | 59–32 |
| Overs–unders | 66–53–1 | 58–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 6–2 LAA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.