Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- JJ BledayBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- JP SearsPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Springer singled to left, Schneider scored and De Los Santos scored.8–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–4
- 8De Los Santos doubled to right, Horwitz scored, Schneider to third.8–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 6Rooker doubled to left, Schuemann scored.8–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 28–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 4Varsho homered to right (347 feet).7–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 4Bleday singled to right, Butler scored.7–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–0
- 1Butler singled to left, Cameron scored, Schuemann to second.6–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 1Gelof homered to center (407 feet), Brown scored.5–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 1Bleday homered to right center (380 feet), Rooker scored and Rooker scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Rooker reached on infield single to first, Butler scored on throwing error by first baseman Horwitz.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 58%
- ML OAK +130 / TOR -155
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 56.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -140
- OAK +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.9 – 4.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | −4 | OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.89 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +43 Elo | TOR 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.826th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.726th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 28th of 3020–39 | Road vs home | 29–3020th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–56 | 56–61 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 23–36 |
| Underdog | 53–47 | 33–25 |
| Overs–unders | 54–63 | 65–51–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 4–7 TOR in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.