Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Colton CowserBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching8.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cowser singled to right, Holliday scored and Mullins scored.6–7
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 26–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–7
- 9Mullins doubled to left, Mountcastle scored, Holliday to third.4–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–7
- 9Holliday grounded into fielder's choice to third, O'Hearn scored, Mountcastle to second, Rutschman out at third.3–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 6Guerrero Jr. tripled to right, Varsho scored.2–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 6Varsho reached on infield single to second, Jimenez scored.2–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–6
- 5Guerrero Jr. homered to right center (376 feet), Varsho scored.2–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 3Cowser homered to left (363 feet), Urías scored.2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 1Kirk singled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 1Varsho scored on a balk, Guerrero Jr. to third on a balk.0–2
- 1Varsho scored on a balk, Guerrero Jr. to third on a balk.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Guerrero Jr. doubled to center, Springer scored, Varsho to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 50%
- ML BAL -110 / TOR -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 48.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TOR -100
- BAL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.8 – 4.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +8 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +12 Elo | BAL 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.927th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.726th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3034–22 | Road vs home | 27–2921st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–54 | 55–59 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 42–46 | 22–34 |
| Underdog | 18–8 | 33–25 |
| Overs–unders | 67–45–2 | 64–49–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 17–8 TOR in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 25.