Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Angel MartinezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ramírez homered to right (402 feet), Kwan scored.7–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 17–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 8Holliday singled to center, O'Hearn scored.7–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 8O'Hearn doubled to right, Rutschman scored.6–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 8Rutschman tripled to right, Henderson scored and Santander scored.5–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 5Henderson singled to left, Holliday scored, Slater to second.3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 4Cowser reached on infield single to first, Santander scored, Jiménez to third.2–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Jiménez singled to left, Henderson scored, Santander to second.1–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 31–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3Martínez homered to right (356 feet), Kwan scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 51%
- ML BAL -115 / CLE -105
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- BAL: Elo 49.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BAL -104
- CLE +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.3 – 4.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −3 | BAL: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +2 Elo | CLE 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.83rd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 2nd of 3031–21 | Road vs home | 35–151st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–53 | 59–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 39–45 | 30–35 |
| Underdog | 18–8 | 29–15 |
| Overs–unders | 64–44–2 | 54–53–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 4–8 CLE in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.