Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rutschman grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Holliday scored on error, Slater safe at second on fielding error by shortstop Rocchio.3–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–10
- 7Bo Naylor homered to right (396 feet), J. Naylor scored and Freeman scored.2–10
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–10
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul2–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 32–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–10
- 7Ramírez homered to right (373 feet), Thomas scored.2–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 4Santander homered to right (416 feet).2–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 3Fry homered to left center (407 feet), Ramírez scored and J. Naylor scored.1–5
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 31–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 1J. Naylor singled to center, Thomas scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Ramírez hit sacrifice fly to center, Kwan scored, Thomas to third.1–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Henderson doubled to center, Cowser scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 50%
- ML BAL -110 / CLE -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 49.6%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -100
- BAL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.8 – 4.8 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +5 | BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Ben Lively: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +3 Elo | BAL 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3031–19 | Road vs home | 33–151st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–51 | 57–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 39–45 | 28–35 |
| Underdog | 18–6 | 29–15 |
| Overs–unders | 62–44–2 | 52–53–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 4–6 CLE in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.