Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jackson HollidayBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Carlos CarrascoPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Santander hit sacrifice fly to center, Holliday scored.4–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–8
- 7Cowser singled to center, Mayo scored, Holliday to third.3–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 7Holliday singled to left, Mullins scored, Mayo to second.2–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–8
- 6Ramírez hit sacrifice fly to center, Rocchio scored and Hedges scored.1–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–8
- 6Kwan walked, Martínez scored, Hedges to second, Rocchio to third.1–6
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 41–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 31–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - Pitch Timer Violation 11–6
- 6Hedges singled to left, Giménez scored, Rocchio to second, Martínez to third.1–5
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 31–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 21–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–5
- 5J. Naylor doubled to third, Ramírez scored and Kwan scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 21–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 11–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 2Hedges hit sacrifice fly to right, Fry scored, Rocchio to second, Martínez to third.1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Rocchio walked, J. Naylor scored, Martínez to second, Fry to third.1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 51%
- ML BAL -115 / CLE -105
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- BAL: Elo 50.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BAL -104
- CLE +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.8 – 4.7 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −15 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +5 Elo | BAL 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3031–20 | Road vs home | 34–151st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–52 | 58–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 39–45 | 29–35 |
| Underdog | 18–7 | 29–15 |
| Overs–unders | 63–44–2 | 53–53–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 4–7 CLE in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.