Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rutschman singled to center, Santander scored.9–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–5
- 6Rutschman doubled to right, Henderson scored, Mountcastle to third.8–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 18–5
- 6Mountcastle singled to center, Cowser scored, Henderson to third.7–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–5
- 5J. Naylor homered to center (420 feet), Kwan scored and Ramírez scored.6–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 26–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 4Henderson homered to right center (388 feet), Cowser scored.6–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 16–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 4Holliday homered to right (362 feet).4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Ramírez reached on infield single to pitcher, Kwan scored on throwing error by pitcher Burnes, Ramírez to second.3–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 3Kwan singled to center, Schneemann scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 33–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3Jiménez singled to right, Santander scored, Henderson to third.3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Rutschman hit sacrifice fly to center, Cowser scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1O'Hearn doubled to left, Henderson scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 54%
- ML BAL -130 / CLE +110
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- BAL: Elo 51.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -119
- CLE +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.9 – 3.6 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +7 | BAL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +7 Elo | BAL 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3032–21 | Road vs home | 35–161st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–53 | 59–51 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 40–45 | 30–35 |
| Underdog | 18–8 | 29–16 |
| Overs–unders | 65–44–2 | 55–53–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 5–8 CLE in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.