Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jackson HollidayBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Albert SuarezPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Slater walked, Rutschman scored, Jiménez to second, Mountcastle to third.2–5
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 42–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 32–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 6Barger doubled to left, Clement scored and Varsho scored.1–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 6Kirk homered to left (391 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored and Horwitz scored.1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 6Holliday homered to right center (410 feet).1–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 57%
- ML BAL -150 / TOR +125
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- BAL: Elo 56.3%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- BAL -135
- TOR +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.6 – 3.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −9 | BAL: Albert Suarez: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +44 Elo | BAL 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.927th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3033–21 | Road vs home | 26–2823rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–53 | 54–58 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 41–45 | 22–34 |
| Underdog | 18–8 | 32–24 |
| Overs–unders | 66–44–2 | 63–48–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 16–7 TOR in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.