Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Leo JimenezBatting3-4
- Bowden FrancisPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Jiménez doubled to right, Rutschman scored and Slater scored.7–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 27–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 17–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 8Santander homered to left center (378 feet).5–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 7Holliday homered to right (424 feet), Jiménez scored.4–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 2Serven scored on error, Clement safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Mayo.2–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 2Serven reached on infield single to second, Jimenez scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1Horwitz hit sacrifice fly to left, Clement scored.2–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 32–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1Santander homered to right center (391 feet), Cowser scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 55%
- ML BAL -135 / TOR +115
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- BAL: Elo 54.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -124
- TOR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 5.0 – 4.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −9 | BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Bowden Francis: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +32 Elo | BAL 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.726th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3033–22 | Road vs home | 27–2821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–54 | 55–58 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 41–46 | 22–34 |
| Underdog | 18–8 | 33–24 |
| Overs–unders | 66–45–2 | 63–49–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 16–8 TOR in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 24.