Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Darell HernaizBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch SpencePitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Spencer HorwitzBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Horwitz homered to right (404 feet).1–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 6Kirk grounded into fielder's choice to third, Guerrero Jr. scored, Horwitz out at second.1–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3Hernaiz homered to left center (391 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Springer homered to left center (421 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 58%
- ML OAK +130 / TOR -155
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- TOR: Elo 59.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -140
- OAK +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.4 – 5.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | 0 | OAK: Mitch Spence: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +68 Elo | TOR 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.927th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.726th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 28th of 3019–38 | Road vs home | 28–2921st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–55 | 55–60 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 22–35 |
| Underdog | 52–46 | 33–25 |
| Overs–unders | 54–61 | 65–49–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 3–6 TOR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.