Los Angeles Dodgers at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Enrique HernandezBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- River RyanPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Osvaldo BidoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 3Biggio singled to center, Heyward scored, Biggio thrown out at second.3–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 1Rooker homered to left center (429 feet), Bleday scored.2–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1E. Hernández doubled to left, Lux scored and T. Hernández scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 58%
- ML LAD -155 / OAK +130
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.2 pts
- LAD: Elo 64.5%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -140
- OAK +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.6 – 3.9 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −15 | LAD: River Ryan: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · OAK: Osvaldo Bido: team allows 0.77 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +103 Elo | LAD 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 59.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 11th of 3029–27 | Road vs home | 27–2820th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–58 | 58–53 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 47–48 | 7–7 |
| Underdog | 6–10 | 51–46 |
| Overs–unders | 58–52–1 | 54–57 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 4–1 OAK in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.