Los Angeles Dodgers at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Enrique HernandezBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Athletics- Seth BrownBatting2-4
- Mitch SpencePitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ahmed singled to center, E. Hernández scored.10–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul10–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 210–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 110–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul10–0
- 9Heyward scored on Muller wild pitch, E. Hernández to second on wild pitch by Muller.9–0
- 9Heyward scored on Muller wild pitch, E. Hernández to second on wild pitch by Muller.9–0
- 9E. Hernández singled to right, Smith scored, Heyward to third.8–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 28–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
- 9Heyward singled to center, Rosario scored, Smith to second.7–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 9Smith singled to left, T. Hernández scored, Rosario to second.6–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 9Rosario reached on infield single to second, Ohtani scored.5–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 8Pages singled to left, E. Hernández scored.4–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 8E. Hernández doubled to left, Heyward scored on error, E. Hernández to third, E. Hernández safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Schuemann.3–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Lux singled to left, Biggio scored and T. Hernández scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML LAD -180 / OAK +150
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 60.7%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -161
- OAK +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.3 – 3.2 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +5 | LAD: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · OAK: Mitch Spence: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +75 Elo | LAD 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 60.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 12th of 3028–27 | Road vs home | 27–2720th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–58 | 58–52 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 46–48 | 7–7 |
| Underdog | 6–10 | 51–45 |
| Overs–unders | 57–52–1 | 53–57 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 3–1 OAK in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.