Los Angeles Dodgers at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Gavin StonePitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joey EstesPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ohtani homered to right (405 feet), E. Hernández scored and Outman scored.5–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 5Rooker homered to center (419 feet), Bleday scored.2–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–6
- 5Bleday doubled to right, Andujar scored.2–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 5Andujar tripled to right, Butler scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 4Brown homered to right center (402 feet).2–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 32–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Langeliers homered to left (431 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 1T. Hernández homered to left center (383 feet), Lux scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 58%
- ML LAD -155 / OAK +130
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 62.4%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -140
- OAK +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.6 – 3.9 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −6 | LAD: Gavin Stone: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · OAK: Joey Estes: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +88 Elo | LAD 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 10th of 3028–26 | Road vs home | 26–2720th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–57 | 57–52 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 46–47 | 7–7 |
| Underdog | 6–10 | 50–45 |
| Overs–unders | 56–52–1 | 52–57 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 3–0 OAK in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.