Chicago White Sox at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Joey EstesPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Butler hit sacrifice fly to left, Alvarez scored.2–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 7Gelof singled to left, Toro scored, Alvarez to second.2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 7Alvarez singled to left, Rooker scored, Toro to second.2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 2Benintendi homered to right center (386 feet), Vaughn scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- OAK 62%
- ML CHW +150 / OAK -180
- Pre-line forecast
- OAK 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OAK 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- OAK: Elo 61.7%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- OAK -161
- CHW +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.7 – 4.8 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1385 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −5 | CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · OAK: Joey Estes: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OAK +83 Elo | OAK 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OAK 60.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OAK 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.1 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 30th of 3011–48 | Road vs home | 28–3021st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–63 | 60–54 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–3 | 8–8 |
| Underdog | 46–60 | 52–46 |
| Overs–unders | 53–61–1 | 54–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 4–5 OAK in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.