Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sammy PeraltaPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Twins- Royce LewisBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Castro singled to left, Miranda scored and Wallner scored, Vázquez to third.7–13
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–13
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–13
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–13
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–13
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–13
- 8Vázquez walked, Lewis scored, Wallner to second, Miranda to third.7–11
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball 47–11
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul7–11
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 37–11
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–11
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 27–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–11
- 8Vaughn doubled to center, Robert Jr. scored.7–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–10
- 8Robert Jr. doubled to left, Baldwin scored.6–10
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–10
- 7Jeffers hit sacrifice fly to right, Martin scored, Vázquez to third.5–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–10
- 7Wallner scored, Vázquez to second on passed ball by Lee, Martin to third on passed ball by Lee.5–9
- 7Wallner scored, Vázquez to second on passed ball by Lee, Martin to third on passed ball by Lee.5–9
- 7Benintendi homered to right (361 feet), Vaughn scored.5–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–8
- 4Baldwin singled to left, Lee scored, Vargas to third.3–8
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–8
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 33–8
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 23–8
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 13–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–8
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 72%
- ML CHW +240 / MIN -300
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 74.3%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- MIN -255
- CHW +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.2 – 5.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1385 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −27 | −5 | CHW: Chris Flexen: team allows 1.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +185 Elo | MIN 74.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 72.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 72.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.1 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 30th of 3010–46 | Road vs home | 31–215th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–61 | 52–56 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–3 | 31–41 |
| Underdog | 45–58 | 21–15 |
| Overs–unders | 52–59–1 | 56–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 5–20 MIN in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 25.