Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Brooks BaldwinBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lee singled to center, Castro scored, Martin to second.2–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Castro singled to right, Santana scored and Jeffers scored.2–5
- 8Pitch 13 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 12 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 11 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 10 : Ball 32–5
- 8Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 7Kepler homered to right (391 feet).2–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 6Baldwin homered to right center (409 feet).2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Lee singled to right, Martin scored.1–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Lee tripled to right, Sheets scored.1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 2Jeffers homered to left (356 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 69%
- ML CHW +215 / MIN -260
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 71.3%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- MIN -228
- CHW +228 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 2.8 – 4.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1386 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +12 | CHW: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +158 Elo | MIN 71.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 61.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.1 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 30th of 3010–45 | Road vs home | 30–218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–60 | 51–56 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–3 | 30–41 |
| Underdog | 45–57 | 21–15 |
| Overs–unders | 51–59–1 | 55–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 5–19 MIN in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 24.