Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Twins- Royce LewisBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Buxton homered to center (423 feet), Larnach scored.2–10
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–10
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–10
- 8Castro homered to right center (396 feet), Vázquez scored.2–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 32–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–8
- 8Vázquez doubled to left, Lee scored and Martin scored.2–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 3Lewis doubled to center, Buxton scored and Larnach scored.2–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Vargas homered to left center (397 feet), Fletcher scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 32–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 1Lewis homered to left (409 feet), Larnach scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 73%
- ML CHW +255 / MIN -325
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 70.2%, market 73.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -271
- CHW +271 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.2 – 5.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1388 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −3 | CHW: Davis Martin (no track record yet) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +149 Elo | MIN 70.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 71.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 71.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 73.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.1 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 30th of 3010–44 | Road vs home | 29–218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–59 | 50–56 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–3 | 29–41 |
| Underdog | 45–56 | 21–15 |
| Overs–unders | 50–59–1 | 54–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 5–18 MIN in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 23.