Chicago White Sox at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Ky BushPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- JP SearsPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Schuemann struck out swinging, Gelof scored.1–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging1–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 6Butler homered to center (409 feet).1–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 4Schuemann singled to left, Bleday scored and Gelof scored, Hernaiz to second.1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Benintendi singled to center, Vaughn scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Nevin hit sacrifice fly to right, Cameron scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- OAK 65%
- ML CHW +170 / OAK -210
- Pre-line forecast
- OAK 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OAK 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- OAK: Elo 62.4%, market 64.7%
- Fair odds
- OAK -183
- CHW +183 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.6 – 4.9 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1383 | 1445 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +14 | CHW: Ky Bush (no track record yet) · OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OAK +88 Elo | OAK 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OAK 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OAK 64.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.2 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 30th of 3010–47 | Road vs home | 27–2921st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–62 | 59–53 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–3 | 7–7 |
| Underdog | 45–59 | 52–46 |
| Overs–unders | 53–59–1 | 54–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 3–4 OAK in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.