Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Angels- Willie CalhounBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kenny RosenbergPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Calhoun homered to center (396 feet).6–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 26–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 8Loperfido singled to right, Jimenez scored.6–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 3Horwitz homered to right center (399 feet).5–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 3Guerrero Jr. homered to left center (394 feet).4–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 14–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 1Wagner doubled to right, Clement scored and Horwitz scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 1Clement reached on infield single to shortstop, Springer scored, Horwitz to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 51%
- ML TOR -115 / LAA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- TOR: Elo 51.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -104
- LAA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.3 – 4.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +10 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Carson Fulmer: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +10 Elo | TOR 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 27th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.826th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.827th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3027–33 | Road vs home | 26–3628th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–62 | 65–54 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–37 | 6–22 |
| Underdog | 34–25 | 59–32 |
| Overs–unders | 66–52–1 | 58–61 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 5–2 LAA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.