Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Leo JimenezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bowden FrancisPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Angels- Mickey MoniakBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Davis DanielPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Adell homered to right center (394 feet).4–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 14–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 3Moniak homered to right (395 feet).4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 3Jimenez homered to center (396 feet), Wagner scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 3Wagner singled to right, Horwitz scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Horwitz hit a ground rule double, Guerrero Jr. scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 50%
- ML TOR -110 / LAA -110
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- LAA: Elo 50.4%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- LAA -100
- TOR -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.8 – 4.8 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | 0 | TOR: Bowden Francis: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · LAA: Davis Daniel: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +3 Elo | LAA 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 27th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.826th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3026–33 | Road vs home | 26–3528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–62 | 65–53 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–37 | 6–21 |
| Underdog | 33–25 | 59–32 |
| Overs–unders | 66–51–1 | 58–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–2 LAA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.