Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- James WoodBatting3-3
- Patrick CorbinPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting4-5, 1 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Turner singled to left, Marsh scored, Schwarber to second, Stevenson to third.2–3
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 22–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 9Young grounded into fielder's choice to second, Nuñez scored, Tena out at second.2–2
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 22–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 12–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 9Tena singled to center, L. García Jr. scored, Nuñez to third.1–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 31–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3Realmuto singled to center, Castellanos scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Castellanos singled to left, Turner scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 71%
- ML WSH +225 / PHI -280
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 63.5%, market 70.5%
- Fair odds
- PHI -239
- WSH +239 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.8 – 5.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −10 | WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +97 Elo | PHI 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 69.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 68.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 70.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3027–35 | Road vs home | 40–211st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–56 | 60–61 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–15 | 46–49 |
| Underdog | 57–41 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders | 62–59–1 | 57–63–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 7–13 PHI in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 20.