Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Keibert RuizBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching3.0 IP, 9 ER, 6 K
Phillies- Weston WilsonBatting4-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rojas singled to left, Realmuto scored and Wilson scored, Rojas out stretching at second.3–13
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–13
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–13
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–13
- 7Schwarber scored on error, Harper safe at first on fielding error by center fielder Young, Harper safe at second on error, Turner safe at third on error.3–11
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–11
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 23–11
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–11
- 7Wilson homered to right center (371 feet).3–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–10
- 7Ruiz homered to right (361 feet).3–9
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–9
- 6Wood grounded out to shortstop, Young scored, Abrams to third.2–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–9
- 5Ruiz homered to right center (397 feet).1–9
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–9
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 11–9
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–9
- 4Castellanos singled to right, Harper scored.0–9
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–9
- 4Harper singled to right, Turner scored, Harper to second.0–8
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–8
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–8
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–8
- 4Turner doubled to left, Rojas scored and Schwarber scored.0–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–7
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 70%
- ML WSH +215 / PHI -265
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 63.4%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -229
- WSH +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.8 – 4.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +8 | WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +96 Elo | PHI 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 67.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 67.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 69.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3027–34 | Road vs home | 39–212nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–55 | 59–61 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–15 | 45–49 |
| Underdog | 57–40 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders | 61–59–1 | 56–63–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 7–12 PHI in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.