Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Diamondbacks- Adrian Del CastilloBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching7.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Del Castillo homered to right (416 feet).2–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Rojas doubled to left, Castellanos scored, Rojas to third.2–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 7Harper homered to left (373 feet).1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3Pederson homered to right (393 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Del Castillo singled to left, Carroll scored, Bell to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 56%
- ML PHI -140 / ARI +120
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 52.3%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -128
- ARI +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.5 – 4.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | 0 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +16 Elo | PHI 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 6th of 3030–25 | Road vs home | 31–2612th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–57 | 59–57 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 44–46 | 22–32 |
| Underdog | 14–11 | 37–25 |
| Overs–unders | 53–61–1 | 65–50–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 10–8 ARI in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 18.
- Aug 8PHI 6 @ ARI 4Picked ARI 53%Miss
- Jun 23ARI 1 @ PHI 4Picked PHI 68%Hit
- Jun 22ARI 1 @ PHI 12Picked PHI 70%Hit
- Jun 21ARI 5 @ PHI 4Picked PHI 56%Miss
- Oct 24ARI 4 @ PHI 2PlayoffsPicked PHI 54%Miss
- Oct 23ARI 5 @ PHI 1PlayoffsPicked PHI 55%Miss
- Oct 21PHI 6 @ ARI 1PlayoffsPicked ARI 51%Miss
- Oct 20PHI 5 @ ARI 6PlayoffsPicked ARI 51%Hit