Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ohtani homered to center (384 feet).3–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 6Bohm grounded out to second, Schwarber scored, Harper to third.3–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 3T. Hernández homered to left (390 feet), Ahmed scored.2–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Ohtani hit sacrifice fly to right, Pages scored, Ahmed to second.2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pages doubled to left, Heyward scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 32–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Stott scored on Glasnow wild pitch, Hays to third on wild pitch by Glasnow.2–0
- 2Stott scored on Glasnow wild pitch, Hays to third on wild pitch by Glasnow.2–0
- 2Stott reached on infield single to pitcher, Castellanos scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 57%
- ML PHI +120 / LAD -145
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- LAD: Elo 52.7%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -130
- PHI +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.5 – 4.0 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −2 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +18 Elo | LAD 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 8th of 3027–24 | Road vs home | 34–193rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–56 | 53–59 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 44–46 | 47–49 |
| Underdog | 11–10 | 6–10 |
| Overs–unders | 51–59–1 | 58–53–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–4 LAD in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.