Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Joc PedersonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Pirates- Isiah Kiner-FalefaBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Reynolds singled to right, McCutchen scored, Taylor to third.6–5
- 9Pitch 10 : Ball In Play6–5
- 9Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 9Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 36–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 26–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 9Marte homered to center (413 feet).6–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 7Pederson homered to left center (410 feet), Perdomo scored and Carroll scored.5–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 6McCarthy singled to center, Pederson scored, Bell to second.2–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 6Marte grounded out to second, Carroll scored.1–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 2Kiner-Falefa tripled to right, Bae scored and Grandal scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Grandal doubled to right, Bart scored, Bae to third.0–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1De La Cruz singled to left, Kiner-Falefa scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 60%
- ML ARI +140 / PIT -165
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- PIT: Elo 51.3%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- PIT -149
- ARI +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.3 – 4.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +16 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +9 Elo | PIT 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 60.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 13th of 3028–27 | Road vs home | 27–2720th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–55 | 58–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 22–30 | 16–29 |
| Underdog | 34–25 | 42–21 |
| Overs–unders | 61–49–1 | 52–56 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 7–4 PIT in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.