Pittsburgh Pirates at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Joey BartBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jake WoodfordPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Astros- Mauricio DubonBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 6Dubón homered to left center (399 feet), Y. Diaz scored.4–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 3Y. Diaz doubled to center, Alvarez scored.4–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 3McCormick scored on throwing error by shortstop Cruz, Alvarez safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Cruz, Alvarez safe at third on error.4–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 2Peña scored on Woodford wild pitch.4–1
- 2Peña scored on Woodford wild pitch.4–1
- 2McCutchen singled to right, Triolo scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 2Triolo doubled to center, Hayes scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Bart homered to left center (407 feet), De La Cruz scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 68%
- ML PIT +200 / HOU -240
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 64.2%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- HOU -212
- PIT +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.4 – 5.1 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −37 | +13 | PIT: Jake Woodford: team allows 1.85 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +102 Elo | HOU 64.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 61.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 30 |
| 10th of 3029–26 | Road vs home | 30–2412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–50 | 53–51 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 15–29 | 33–40 |
| Underdog | 40–21 | 20–11 |
| Overs–unders | 50–55 | 44–57–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–2 HOU in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.