Pittsburgh Pirates at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Michael A. TaylorBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Tayler ScottPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Alvarez walked, Caratini scored, Altuve to second, Cabbage to third.5–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 45–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 35–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 9Taylor homered to left center (421 feet), Hayes scored and Triolo scored.5–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 8Cruz doubled to right, Triolo scored, Reynolds to third.2–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 6Grandal homered to right (388 feet).1–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Altuve grounded into fielder's choice to third, Meyers scored on fielding error by third baseman Hayes and Singleton scored, Caratini to second.0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 57%
- ML PIT -145 / HOU +120
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.1 pts
- PIT: Elo 43.5%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- PIT -130
- HOU +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.0 – 3.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −1 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · HOU: Tayler Scott: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +46 Elo | HOU 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 12th of 3027–26 | Road vs home | 30–229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–50 | 53–49 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–29 | 33–39 |
| Underdog | 39–21 | 20–10 |
| Overs–unders | 49–54 | 43–56–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–2 HOU in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.