Pittsburgh Pirates at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Michael A. TaylorBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting4-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8McCutchen walked, Bart scored, Taylor to second, Bae to third.6–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 46–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 36–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 26–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 6Peña grounded into fielder's choice to third, Alvarez scored, Y. Diaz out at second.5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 6Taylor homered to left center (403 feet), Triolo scored.5–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 4Y. Diaz homered to left (351 feet).3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Triolo doubled to left, Joe scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 33–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 4Joe reached on infield single to pitcher, Bart scored on throwing error by pitcher Brown, Joe to third.2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Triolo grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Hayes scored, Joe out at second.1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 64%
- ML PIT +165 / HOU -200
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 61.4%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- HOU -177
- PIT +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.6 – 4.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +7 | PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +81 Elo | HOU 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 62.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 10th of 3028–26 | Road vs home | 30–2311th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–50 | 53–50 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–29 | 33–39 |
| Underdog | 39–21 | 20–11 |
| Overs–unders | 50–54 | 44–56–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 2–2 HOU in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.