Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting5-5, 2 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tellez singled to right, Cruz scored.9–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul9–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking9–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 29–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–8
- 9Marte homered to right (399 feet).9–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–7
- 8Perdomo doubled to right, Moreno scored.8–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 18–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–7
- 7Bell homered to right (370 feet).7–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking7–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–7
- 6Cruz reached on infield single to second, McCutchen scored, Reynolds to third.6–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–7
- 6Reynolds singled to center, Taylor scored, McCutchen to second.6–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–6
- 6McCutchen singled to right, Hayes scored, Taylor to third.6–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–5
- 6Taylor grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Bart scored, Triolo out at second, Hayes to third.6–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 36–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 26–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 6Thomas singled to right, Suárez scored.6–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–3
- 5Cruz singled to right, Reynolds scored.5–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 54%
- ML ARI -130 / PIT +110
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- ARI: Elo 50.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.4 – 4.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +10 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Luis Ortiz: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +5 Elo | ARI 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 13th of 3027–26 | Road vs home | 26–2620th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–53 | 56–50 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 22–29 | 15–29 |
| Underdog | 34–24 | 41–21 |
| Overs–unders | 60–48–1 | 51–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 6–3 PIT in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.