Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting3-3
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Joey BartBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marte singled to right, Perdomo scored, Carroll to third.2–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 12–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 6Bart singled to left, Joe scored.1–4
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 31–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 21–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 6Reynolds homered to center (405 feet), Bae scored.1–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 31–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - Pitch Timer Violation 11–3
- 5Pederson walked, Suárez scored, Perdomo to second, Moreno to third.1–1
- 5Pitch 9 : Ball 41–1
- 5Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Bart homered to left center (418 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 52%
- ML ARI +100 / PIT -120
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- PIT: Elo 52.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -109
- ARI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.2 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +11 | ARI: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +18 Elo | PIT 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 10th of 3028–26 | Road vs home | 26–2721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–54 | 57–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 22–30 | 15–29 |
| Underdog | 34–24 | 42–21 |
| Overs–unders | 61–48–1 | 52–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 7–3 PIT in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.