Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kolby AllardPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Jake McCarthyBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9McCarthy singled to center, Perdomo scored.6–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 9Sosa doubled to right, Realmuto scored.6–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging6–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 26–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 7Realmuto homered to left center (430 feet).5–3
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 15–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 6McCarthy homered to right (398 feet), Marte scored.4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Harper singled to center, Schwarber scored, Turner to third.4–1
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 34–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 6Turner singled to left, Rojas scored and Wilson scored, Schwarber to second.3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 6Wilson doubled to center, Castellanos scored.1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Suárez homered to left (386 feet).0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 53%
- ML PHI +105 / ARI -125
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- ARI: Elo 47.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -114
- PHI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 5.1 – 5.4 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −14 | PHI: Kolby Allard: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · ARI: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +15 Elo | PHI 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 9th of 3029–25 | Road vs home | 31–2510th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–57 | 59–56 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 44–46 | 22–31 |
| Underdog | 13–11 | 37–25 |
| Overs–unders | 53–60–1 | 65–49–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 9–8 ARI in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 17.
- Jun 23ARI 1 @ PHI 4Picked PHI 68%Hit
- Jun 22ARI 1 @ PHI 12Picked PHI 70%Hit
- Jun 21ARI 5 @ PHI 4Picked PHI 56%Miss
- Oct 24ARI 4 @ PHI 2PlayoffsPicked PHI 54%Miss
- Oct 23ARI 5 @ PHI 1PlayoffsPicked PHI 55%Miss
- Oct 21PHI 6 @ ARI 1PlayoffsPicked ARI 51%Miss
- Oct 20PHI 5 @ ARI 6PlayoffsPicked ARI 51%Hit
- Oct 19PHI 1 @ ARI 2PlayoffsPicked ARI 50%Hit