Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Josh BellBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carlos CarrascoPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Grichuk homered to left (398 feet).5–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 6Ramírez homered to left (394 feet).4–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 4Martínez hit sacrifice fly to left, J. Naylor scored.4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Bell homered to right (375 feet), Carroll scored.4–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 2Fry homered to center (407 feet).2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Del Castillo doubled to left, Suárez scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Bell homered to left (375 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 50%
- ML ARI -110 / CLE -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- CLE: Elo 48.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -100
- ARI -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.8 – 3.8 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −12 | ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +12 Elo | ARI 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.03rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 6th of 3031–27 | Road vs home | 35–192nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–56 | 60–53 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 22–31 | 30–36 |
| Underdog | 36–25 | 30–17 |
| Overs–unders | 64–49–1 | 58–53–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 4–1 CLE in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.