Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marte homered to left center (403 feet), Carroll scored.7–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 8Ramírez singled to right, Kwan scored, Martínez to third.5–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 25–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 8Suárez doubled to center, Pederson scored.5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Rocchio doubled to right, Giménez scored, Schneemann to third.4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 5J. Naylor homered to right center (402 feet).4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 5Carroll homered to right (349 feet), Herrera scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 2Perdomo homered to right center (382 feet), Thomas scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 50%
- ML ARI -105 / CLE -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 52.9%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -100
- ARI -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.3 – 4.3 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +8 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Ben Lively: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +20 Elo | CLE 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.87th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 9th of 3030–27 | Road vs home | 35–181st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–56 | 60–52 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 22–31 | 30–35 |
| Underdog | 35–25 | 30–17 |
| Overs–unders | 63–49–1 | 57–53–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 3–1 CLE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.