Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching7.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Andres GimenezBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Suárez hit sacrifice fly to right, Carroll scored.7–6
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 27–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 9Schneemann hit sacrifice fly to center, Bo Naylor scored.6–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 26–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 8Pederson homered to right center (406 feet), McCarthy scored.6–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 36–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking6–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 6Giménez singled to center, Ramírez scored and J. Naylor scored.4–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 6Perdomo grounded into fielder's choice to second, McCarthy scored, Newman out at second, Suárez to third.4–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 24–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 6Suárez doubled to left, Bell scored, McCarthy to third.3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 2Bo Naylor singled to center, Giménez scored.2–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 1J. Naylor grounded out to second, Ramírez scored.2–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 52%
- ML ARI -120 / CLE +100
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- ARI: Elo 50.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -109
- CLE +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.3 – 4.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −10 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +2 Elo | ARI 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 12th of 3029–27 | Road vs home | 35–171st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–55 | 59–52 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 22–30 | 30–35 |
| Underdog | 35–25 | 29–17 |
| Overs–unders | 62–49–1 | 56–53–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 2–1 CLE in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.