Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting4-4, 3 HR, 7 RBI
- Tyler PhillipsPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Gavin StonePitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Schwarber homered to center (408 feet).9–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 19–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–4
- 6Schwarber homered to right center (426 feet), Castellanos scored and Rojas scored.8–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging8–4
- 6Marsh scored on Kelly wild pitch, Rojas to second on wild pitch by Kelly, Castellanos to third on wild pitch by Kelly.5–4
- 6Marsh scored on Kelly wild pitch, Rojas to second on wild pitch by Kelly, Castellanos to third on wild pitch by Kelly.5–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 18–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–4
- 6Realmuto grounded out to third, Bohm scored, Marsh to second.4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Schwarber doubled to right, Castellanos scored and Rojas scored.3–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 33–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 2Freeman singled to left, Barnes scored and Kiermaier scored.1–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 1Rojas singled to left, Freeman scored, Lux to second.1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Freeman singled to center, T. Hernández scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Schwarber homered to left (378 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 56%
- ML PHI +120 / LAD -140
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 52.4%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -128
- PHI +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.0 – 4.5 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −1 | PHI: Tyler Phillips: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · LAD: Gavin Stone: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +17 Elo | LAD 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.83rd of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 9th of 3028–25 | Road vs home | 35–202nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–57 | 54–60 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 44–46 | 48–50 |
| Underdog | 12–11 | 6–10 |
| Overs–unders | 52–60–1 | 59–54–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 6–5 LAD in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.