Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Edmundo SosaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Schwarber homered to right (420 feet).6–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 9Sosa homered to right (353 feet).5–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–2
- 8T. Hernández homered to center (424 feet).4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 6Smith grounded out to third, T. Hernández scored.4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Sosa singled to right, Castellanos scored and Realmuto scored, Marsh to third.4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Castellanos singled to center, Bohm scored, Realmuto to third.2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Schwarber singled to center, Hays scored, Marsh to third.1–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 51%
- ML PHI -105 / LAD -115
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 53.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -104
- PHI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.2 – 4.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +6 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +26 Elo | LAD 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.92nd of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 11th of 3027–25 | Road vs home | 35–193rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–57 | 54–59 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 44–46 | 48–49 |
| Underdog | 11–11 | 6–10 |
| Overs–unders | 52–59–1 | 59–53–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–5 LAD in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.