Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Jake McCarthyBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Carroll homered to left center (375 feet), Suárez scored and Perdomo scored.1–11
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–11
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–11
- 7McCarthy homered to right (420 feet), Bell scored.1–8
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 21–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–8
- 7Bell doubled to right, Newman scored and Pederson scored.1–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 5McCarthy homered to right (398 feet), Gurriel Jr. scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 5Harper grounded out to shortstop, Schwarber scored, Turner to third.1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Carroll grounded into fielder's choice to second, Perdomo scored on fielding error by first baseman Harper, Herrera out at second.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Marte homered to right center (406 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 52%
- ML PHI +100 / ARI -120
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- ARI: Elo 50.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -109
- PHI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.2 – 4.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +6 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +2 Elo | ARI 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.11st of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 7th of 3030–26 | Road vs home | 32–2610th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–58 | 60–57 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 44–47 | 22–32 |
| Underdog | 14–11 | 38–25 |
| Overs–unders | 53–62–1 | 65–51–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 10–9 ARI in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 19.
- Aug 9PHI 2 @ ARI 3Picked PHI 56%Miss
- Aug 8PHI 6 @ ARI 4Picked ARI 53%Miss
- Jun 23ARI 1 @ PHI 4Picked PHI 68%Hit
- Jun 22ARI 1 @ PHI 12Picked PHI 70%Hit
- Jun 21ARI 5 @ PHI 4Picked PHI 56%Miss
- Oct 24ARI 4 @ PHI 2PlayoffsPicked PHI 54%Miss
- Oct 23ARI 5 @ PHI 1PlayoffsPicked PHI 55%Miss
- Oct 21PHI 6 @ ARI 1PlayoffsPicked ARI 51%Miss