Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jake BurgerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Valente BellozoPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting1-4
- Taijuan WalkerPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9J. Sánchez homered to right center (401 feet).5–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 7J. Sánchez struck out swinging, Edwards scored on throwing error by catcher Realmuto.4–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging4–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 3Burger homered to left center (405 feet).3–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 33–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Lopez singled to right, J. Sánchez scored, Lopez to second, Bride to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Bride singled to left, Burger scored, J. Sánchez to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 64%
- ML MIA +170 / PHI -205
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- PHI: Elo 64.4%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- PHI -181
- MIA +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.1 – 5.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −14 | MIA: Valente Bellozo: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +103 Elo | PHI 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 62.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 27th of 3020–36 | Road vs home | 38–201st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–64 | 58–60 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 44–48 |
| Underdog | 52–45 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders | 67–50–1 | 55–62–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 10–12 PHI in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 22.