Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Derek HillBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Kyle TylerPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Hill grounded out to third, Lopez scored.10–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 110–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul10–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–4
- 10Fairchild hit sacrifice fly to left, Candelario scored.10–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging10–3
- 10Marte singled to left, Steer scored, Fraley to second, Candelario to third.9–3
- 10Pitch 9 : Ball In Play9–3
- 10Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul9–3
- 10Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul9–3
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball 39–3
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 29–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 19–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–3
- 10Candelario singled to right, Friedl scored and Stephenson scored, Steer to second.8–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging8–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 18–3
- 10Steer singled to left, De La Cruz scored, Friedl to second, Stephenson to third.6–3
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–3
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging6–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 36–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 26–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 10Friedl hit by pitch, India scored, Stephenson to second, De La Cruz to third.5–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 10Stephenson walked, Fairchild scored, De La Cruz to second, India to third.4–3
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball 44–3
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball 34–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 24–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 62%
- ML CIN -185 / MIA +155
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- CIN: Elo 54.5%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -166
- MIA +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.3 – 3.2 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +6 | CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Kyle Tyler: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +31 Elo | CIN 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.629th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.028th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.328th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 16th of 3027–28 | Road vs home | 23–3629th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–52 | 52–62 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–32 | 2–19 |
| Underdog | 35–20 | 50–43 |
| Overs–unders | 54–59–1 | 64–49–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 7–5 MIA in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.