Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Marlins- Derek HillBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Marte scored on error, Steer safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Edwards, De La Cruz safe at third on error.8–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–2
- 5France homered to right center (395 feet).7–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 37–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 27–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking7–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 17–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 4Hill singled to center, J. Sánchez scored and Lopez scored, Pache to third.6–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 4Stephenson singled to center, De La Cruz scored.6–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 4Friedl hit sacrifice fly to center, India scored, De La Cruz to third.5–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4De La Cruz doubled to left, Fraley scored and Marte scored, India to third.4–0
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 34–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 24–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 3Friedl doubled to center, De La Cruz scored, Steer to third.2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Stephenson homered to center (418 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 54%
- ML CIN -130 / MIA +110
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- CIN: Elo 51.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -119
- MIA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.9 – 3.6 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +11 | CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +12 Elo | CIN 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 58.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.629th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.928th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.328th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 16th of 3026–27 | Road vs home | 22–3529th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–51 | 51–61 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 26–31 | 2–19 |
| Underdog | 35–20 | 49–42 |
| Overs–unders | 52–59–1 | 62–49–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 6–4 MIA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.